Why DCP Adan Mohamed Kiongozi Is Poised to Clinch Banisa MP Seat in November By-Election
By: Yussuf Hashi
As Banisa Constituency heads into the November by-election, political currents appear to favor Adan Mohamed Kiongozi, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) flag bearer Kiongozi, who narrowly lost the 2022 general election under the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), has emerged as the frontrunner to succeed the late MP Kullow Maalim and he is expected to face off head on with Barre Maalim Hassan, a brother to the deceased, His momentum rests on three pivotal factors: the collapse of negotiated democracy, the decline of the United Democratic Movement (UDM), and the tribal arithmetic that continues to define Northern Kenya’s politics.
1- Collapse of Negotiated Democracy: Numbers Now Matter
In 2022, Kiongozi garnered 9,812 votes on an ODM ticket, falling short against Kullow Maalim Hassan of UDM, who won with 10,476 votes. That outcome was less about popularity and more about negotiated democracy—a system where clan elders broker deals to balance representation among sub-clans.
At the time, Kiongozi, from the Quranyowa sub-clan of the Garre tribe, was sidelined due to his kinship ties with Mandera Governor Adan Mohamed Khalif, who was himself contesting the gubernatorial seat. The elders opted for Kullow, believing it maintained clan equilibrium.
Today, the ground has shifted. The November by-election is not bound by such elite arrangements. With Banisa’s Quranyowa sub-clan forming a demographic majority, Kiongozi enjoys grassroots loyalty. By contrast, his main rival, Ahmed Maalim Hassan of UDA—the late MP’s brother—is perceived as an outsider to Banisa despite his family lineage. For the first time in years, voters are expected to prioritize local representation and lived familiarity over clan-brokered compromises.
2. UDM Implosion: A Party in Retreat
UDM, once celebrated as Northern Kenya’s political vehicle, is now a shadow of itself. Under the leadership of Mandera Senator Ali Roba, the party has been accused of imposing underperforming leaders, including Mandera Governor Mohamed Adan Khalif, whose tenure has faced sharp criticism for unmet development promises.
UDM’s recent move to withdraw from the Banisa race and hand over its support to UDA was widely seen as a betrayal of its supporters. For many, it was the clearest sign yet of the party’s collapse.
In this vacuum, DCP has stepped in decisively. Kiongozi’s defection to DCP was not accidental—it was a deliberate shift from national power games to a people-centered, grassroots campaign. His candidacy has energized Banisa politics at a time when UDM is viewed as “the last kick of a dying horse,” reduced to serving Roba’s personal ambitions rather than regional aspirations.
3. Tribal Voting Patterns: The Arithmetic Favors Kiongozi
In Northern Kenya, voting often aligns with clan and sub-clan loyalties rather than party ideology. The Somali Garre, dominant in Banisa, typically coalesce around sub-clan candidates. Kiongozi’s Quranyowa sub tribe identity, coupled with his deep Banisa roots, gives him a natural edge.
Meanwhile, UDA’s growing regional footprint, aided by its absorption of UDM, is seen as an external imposition—too top-down, too detached from Banisa’s local realities. Kiongozi’s community-driven messaging resonates more authentically with the electorate, solidifying his position as the candidate of the people.
4- The Duale Factor: Drawing a Line Against UDM
The rivalry between current Health CS Aden Duale and Senator Ali Roba has further eroded UDM’s credibility. In the 2023 Garissa Township by-election, Duale’s ally Major Dekow Mohamed Barrow defeated UDM’s Nassir Dolal with 11,572 votes to 8,158. That race was a turning point, Duale publicly denounced UDM as a “kraal party” and began systematically dismantling its influence.
Banisa’s by-election now reflects that broader struggle. UDM’s failure to field a candidate in its supposed stronghold is interpreted as strategic surrender, leaving the path open for Kiongozi and DCP to capitalize.
A Race Kiongozi Is Ready to Win
With negotiated democracy crumbling, UDM in retreat, and clan arithmetic aligning in his favor, Adan Mohamed Kiongozi stands as the strongest contender for Banisa’s parliamentary seat. His local grounding, proven resilience, and alignment with DCP’s grassroots energy place him in pole position.
The November by-election is more than a constituency contest—it is a referendum on the future of Northern Kenya’s political identity. All signs suggest that Kiongozi is ready not just to compete, but to lead Banisa into that new chapter.
